Race Predictions: Monza, The Temple of Speed

The Autodromo Nazionale Monza has hosted some of the greatest Grand Prix since it first held one in 1921. And it is surely home to the greatest fans. The Italian tifosi line the banks, grandstands and, after the race, the track itself in their hundreds of thousands every year. Covered in Rosso Corsa red from head to toe, they wave the Italian flag, chant and ignite flares in honour of the pride of the nation: Ferrari. If you are in any doubt of the dedication of fans in the modern Formula One era, you need only watch the Italian Grand Prix. 

The tifosi, which translates as ‘fanatic’, have had plenty to cheer about over the years. Michael Schumacher won the race five times behind the wheel of a Ferrari over a ten year period, the first in 1996 and the last in 2006. His running mate, the Brazilian Rubens Barrichello nabbed victories for Ferrari in 2002, when he slowed to allow the teammates a photo finish in front of the fans; and in 2004, when it was another Ferrari one-two.  

Since then, wins for Ferrari at Monza have been more sporadic. Fernando Alonso won his only Italian GP in 2010, ahead of Jenson Button’s McLaren and his teammate, Felipe Massa. Fans then had to wait nine years for Charles Leclerc to bring it home in Ferrari’s only Monza win in the modern hybrid era. If you want to induce an instant smile, watch the end of the 2019 Italian Grand Prix, as Leclerc comes around the final corner, Parabolica. The tifosi roar, flares ignited, and commentator David Croft riffs: “Mercedes threw everything at him today, [but] Charles Leclerc has coped brilliantly. He won in Spa, HE WINS IN MONZA!”. It was a Sunday Leclerc described as the best day of his life, and it’s not hard to see why. 

It’s difficult to picture Ferrari winning this weekend, considering their recent form. The team hasn’t been able to contend for victories of late, with the car’s pace behind that of the surging McLarens and Verstappen’s Red Bull. But Ferrari has been on the periphery, and Leclerc in particular has been on great form. He came fourth in Hungary and has since followed that up with back to back podiums with third places at Spa and Zandvoort. There is also a chance his car could be stronger this weekend. 

“We are in a better position than on the higher downforce tracks”, he said on Thursday’s media day at Monza. “So it should be a bit better. How much better, it’s still to be seen. We’ll also have some upgrades on the car, which should go in the right direction, so hopefully when we put everything together we are closer than where we were in the last few races”. It would be foolish to count out his teammate Carlos Sainz Jr also. It’s the Spaniard’s final Italian Grand Prix as a Ferrari driver, and will likely be an emotional one. 

Monza is one of the all time classic tracks. It’s known as ‘The Temple of Speed’ due to its long straights, fast sweeping corners and high average speed. F1 cars average 155mph around the circuit, topping out at over 220mph on the start-finish straight. Interestingly, Barrichello still holds the lap record from 2004. His time was a 1:21.046 and it’s the longest standing lap record in F1. The fastest ever lap at Monza however goes to Lewis Hamilton, who in 2020, qualified on pole with a 1:18.887, averaging 164mph. 

Qualifying will be important this weekend, but there are overtaking opportunities at Monza. The first corner chicane always offers plenty of action and has thrown up its fair share of big moves and controversial crashes over the years, including Verstappen and Hamilton’s clash in 2021. There is also the Curva Grande after that, which ends in another chicane, a spot that is often exciting on the first lap and beyond. Who will triumph in Monza? The odds have to be with McLaren and Lando Norris off the back of his victory in Zandvoort where he beat Verstappen by 22 seconds. Expect to see Piastri up there too, and don’t discount Lewis Hamilton, who ties Schumacher’s win record here with five, and will have gained a few more Italian fans ahead of his move to Ferrari next year. As for the Scuderia, it would be the perfect end to Sainz’s stint to nab a podium. There can’t be a single Formula One fan who wouldn’t want to see that. 

SCHEDULE (CEST TIME)

Friday, Aug 30, 2024 
1:30 pm - 2.30pm - Formula 1 - FP1
3:00 pm -  3:35 pm - FIA Formula 3 - Q
4:00 pm - 4.30 pm - FIA Formula 2 - Q
5:00 pm - 6:00 pm - Formula 1 FP2
6:30 pm - 7:15 pm - Porsche Mobil 1 Supercup - FP

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024
9:30 am – 10:15 am - FIA Formula 3 Sprint Race
10:25 am – 10:40 am - Formula 1 – Historic F1 Cars Demonstration
10:55 am – 11:25 am - Porsche Mobil 1 Supercup - Q
12:30 pm – 1:30 pm - Formula 1 – FP3
2:15 pm – 3:05 pm - FIA Formula 2 - Sprint Race
4:00 pm - 5:00 pm - Formula 1 - Q

Sunday, Sep 1, 2024
8:35 am - 9:25 am - FIA Formula 3 - Feature Race
10:05 am – 11:10 am - FIA Formula 2 – Feature Race
11:20 am – 11:35 am - Formula 1 – Historic F1 Cars Demonstration
12:05 pm – 12:40 pm - Porsche Mobil 1 Supercup - Race
1:00 pm – 1:30 pm - Formula 1 - Drivers' Parade
3:00 pm - 5:00 pm - Formula 1 - Race